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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.