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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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