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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.